Sen. Bob Corker is one of the top two candidates to head the NRSC in 2010! It's a huge honor for a freshman Senator and not one I'd wish on my worst enemy.
The NRSC (or National Republican Senatorial Committee) is responsible for recruiting Senate candidates, raising money for them, establishing a national message, and going negative against the Democratic candidates in each state.
Corker let the NRSC do his dirty work in 2006, running the notorious "Call Me" ad and the patently false "Abortion Pill" ad against Harold Ford, Jr., so he's very familiar with how the group works.
Being head of the NRSC was Bill Frist's path to becoming Senate Majority Leader, but that was in 2002 when the GOP was still ascending. Liddy Dole botched the job horribly in 2006, and current NRSC head John Ensign can't scare up any recruits or cash for 2008.
So what will Corker face in 2010, assuming he gets the job?
19 Republicans will be up for re-election, compared to only 15 Democrats. All but one of those Democrats won in 2004 by 10 points or more. By contrast, 9 of the Republicans won by less than 10 points. None of that looks good for Corker.
The Republicans top targets will probably be:
First Tier
Ken Salazar (D-CO). A freshman senator elected with just 51% of the vote? This is got to be the GOP's #1 target. But Colorado is drifting away from the GOP and Salazar has all the benefits of incumbency now.
Second Tier
Blanche Lincoln (D-AR). Despite being in the South, Arkansas is not a reliably Republican state. Its governor and both Senators are Democrats.
Lincoln isn't wildly popular, but she has an established incumbent who won 56% of the Arkansas vote in 2004 when Bush won 54%.
Third Tier
Daniel Inouye (D-HI). I'm assuming Inouye will retire since he'll be 86, which gives the GOP an open seat to run for although Hawaii is consistently a Blue state. Harry Reid (D-NV). Nevada is purple so the GOP have got to make a play for it, but unless a humiliating Democratic coup kicks Reid out of the Senate Majority Leader spot, this seat isnât in danger.
Evan Bayh (D-IN). Indiana may be deep red, but Bayh is beloved. The only way Bayh leaves this seat is he's elected vice president next year.
Byron Dorgan (D-ND). Bush won ND by more than 25 points, but Dorgan won re-election that same year by an even larger margin. Not gonna happen.
Russell Feingold (D-WI). Feingold is an unabashed liberal in a moderate state, but he's completely safe.
No Chance
Barbara Boxer (D-CA)
Christopher Dodd (D-CT)
Patrick Leahy (D-VT)
Barack Obama (D-IL)
Barbara Mikulski (D-MD)
Patty Murray (D-WA)
Charles Schumer (D-NY)
Ron Wyden (D-OR)
Meanwhile, the Republicans will have to defend:
Top Tier
Kit Bond (R-MO). Missouri is a perpetual battleground, and after McCaskill beat Talent here in 2006, you know the Democrats will see this is a prime target. Bond only polls above 50% approval on a good day.
Jim Bunning (R-KY). Bunning will retire for the same (mental) health reasons that should have kept him from getting re-elected in 2004. KY Attorney General Greg Stumbo wins this seat for the Democrats.
Richard Burr (R-NC). North Carolina may be Red, but freshman Burr won this seat with only 52% in 2004 and has a 44% approval rating now.
Mel Martinez (R-FL). Nobody likes this guy.
Arlen Specter (R-PA). Only if he retires. He'll be 80.
David Vitter (R-LA). Do I need to explain?
Second Tier
Judd Gregg (R-NH). New England + Republican = pick-up opportunity.
John McCain (R-AZ). He'll retire. If the extremely popular Gov. Napolitano runs, this becomes a first tier race -- if not an outright gimme.
Lisa Murkowski (R-AK). It's a bad time to be a Republican in Alaska (unless you enjoy handcuffs and tiny concrete rooms), but this is a pretty reliably Red state.
George Voinovich (R-OH). He's got two years to rise above the abysmal much that is the Ohio Republican Party.
Third Tier
Sam Brownback (R-KS). Will he retire? Even if he does, it's still a third tier opportunity at best.
Tom Coburn (R-OK). Tom's a bit kooky, but Oklahoma isn't going to elect a Democrat, right?
Jim DeMint (R-SC). Democrats are probably kidding themselves that this seat might somehow be in play.
Completely Safe
Robert Bennett (R-UT)
Mike Crapo (R-ID)
Chuck Grassley (R-IA) a Possible retirement.
Johnny Isakson (R-GA)
Richard Shelby (R-AL)
John Thune (R-SD)
If the Republicans have a really good year in 2010, they only lose 3 seats. Think anyone would pat Senator Corker on the back for that? Whoever accepts this job in 2010 is setting themselves up for failure.
- Rick Lewis
Corker would be a fool to take this position. Frist made a wise decision in taking it in 2002, but it led to Bush pushing him for majority leader, and I'll bet Frist wishes he had never taken that on.
Posted by: paradise | December 19, 2007 at 06:09 PM